Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer for the C3S Operational Attribution Office based on ECMWF forecast and reanalysis data.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) invites tenders for the development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office. The objective is to create a methodological framework to assess how characteristics of observed extreme events would differ under counterfactual climate conditions without anthropogenic warming. The project utilizes ECMWF forecast and reanalysis products. Tenderers must propose a scientifically robust approach focusing on data availability, computational requirements, and reproducibility. The contract is a single multi-annual Service Contract with a maximum duration of 18 months, expected to commence in Q1 2027. The total estimated value is 750,000 EUR.

Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer for the C3S Operational Attribution Office. The project aims to derive event-specific diagnostics to assess how extreme weather events differ under counterfactual climate conditions without anthropogenic warming using ECMWF forecast and reanalysis data.